Selasa, 25 Februari 2014

Free Download The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America

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The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America

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Audible Audiobook

Listening Length: 13 hours and 44 minutes

Program Type: Audiobook

Version: Unabridged

Publisher: Zeihan on Geopolitics

Audible.com Release Date: October 11, 2017

Language: English, English

ASIN: B076BT18RD

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

In 2014, the author wrote a fascinating book “The Accidental Superpower.” It described how the U.S. benefits from a combination of geographic factors including maritime advantages (navigable river ways, natural harbors making for a network of low cost transportation), an ideal location from a security standpoint (an island-continent protected by huge oceans on each side, and surrounded by two friendly neighbors integrated in NAFTA). Additionally, the U.S. also benefits from material demographic advantages whereby the U.S. population is not aging nearly as fast if at all compared to Japan, China, and Europe (graph on pg 111 shows a spectacular difference in aging demographic trend through 2040 between the U.S. and the other countries). Its labor force will continue growing unlike in Japan and Russia where it is shrinking catastrophically rapidly. Zeihan also added near the end of the book that the emergence of shale oil production will render the U.S. increasingly energy independent.In 2014 Zeihan anticipated that as the U.S. is becoming self-sufficient on all counts, its foreign policy will become more isolationist and protectionist (anti-trade. The U.S. will become less (financially) supportive of NATO and worldwide maritime routes security (end of Bretton Woods era). Three years later everything Zeihan anticipated did occur. And, it can be summed up in one word: Trump! Zeihan indicated in his newsletter that if Hillary had won the election, the U.S. policy path would be identical but carried out at a slower pace.Within “The Accidental Superpower” Zeihan explored the fate of various countries and supranational entities including Russia, China, Japan, Europe and the Euro Zone in particular. In each case, their respective situation for one or more geographical and demographic factors is far less favorable than for the U.S. making unlikely that another hegemon will rise to replace the U.S.By the time, Zeihan published his first book Saudi Arabia undertook an aggressive oil price war by pumping oil supply and lowering oil prices at time down to the low $40s. It was perceived that this was to bankrupt the U.S. shale oil industry. And, it seemed to be successful as many shale oil operations shut down at least temporarily.So, now over two years later Zeihan comes with an update “The Absent Super Power.” However, while his first book was focused on water ways (a factor ignored by the international economics literature), he is now focusing on U.S. shale oil as the subtitle of the book indicates.In the first part of the book Zeihan indicates how the U.S. shale oil industry experienced a drastic improvement in efficiency in response to the Saudis oil price war. On page 46, he shares a graph that indicates the U.S. shale oil industry lowered its breakeven point from $90 per barrel in 2012 down to $40 in 2017. Its breakeven point is now lower than for the U.S. traditional oil industry! And, it has matched Russia, a low cost oil producer. Only Saudi Arabia has a markedly lower breakeven point at around $25. Other OPEC countries are in the mid $30s (not much lower than U.S. shale). One should keep in mind that Saudi Arabia’s oil operations can break even at $25, however its’ fiscal balance requires oil prices closer to a $100 to avoid running large Budget Deficits. At $25, Saudi Arabia’s Budget Deficit would probably be over 20% of GDP.U.S. shale oil has improved its efficiency by developing new technologies including micro-seismic exploration and multilateral drilling that leverages Big Data live information. The improved technology allows the industry to improve its success rate and efficiency. Because of those improvements, even though the industry was closing down many shale operations during the price war, the remaining survivors produced a lot more oil per rig than ever before (graph pg. 29). And, the overall shale oil output held up (see graph pg. 67).U.S. shale exploration guarantees a low cap on U.S. oil price and an abundance of low cost natural gas. And, the latter is associated with abundant electricity generation at a lower cost than major OECD competitors. This is an advantage that may contribute to the reindustralisation of the U.S. And, lower energy costs (petroleum and natural gas) have implications affecting numerous part of the consumer, chemical, pharmaceutical, and industrial product sectors (diagram on pg. 63).U.S. shale energy is based on numerous competitive advantages that include geology (maritime shale is easier to extract than lacustrine shale), law (U.S. is among few countries that fully implement private mineral rights), labor specialization (largest body of proficient engineers specializing in shale exploration), capital availability (best risk capital infrastructure), and as mentioned the best shale energy exploration technology. Those competitive advantages are not fully replicable anywhere else. Thus, the U.S. is likely to remain the leader in this sector for a very long time.As a consequence of the emergence of U.S. shale oil, the international oil markets will fragment into at least two (if not more) separate markets: a) a US domestic one where prices will be chronically low and not volatile; and b) the traditional international one where prices will be a lot more volatile and have frequent spikes at or above $100 even $150 associated with Gulf crisis, wars, etc.In the second and main part of the book, Zeihan describes “The Disorder” where he describes the falling apart of the existing Bretton Woods era. Per Zeihan, the World Order is going to fracture along three sets of wars that he defines as: 1) the Twilight War; 2) the Next Gulf War; and 3) the Tanker War.In the Twilight War, he describes how Russia in order to preempt its unfortunate geography (flat and vulnerable to attacks) and demography (rapidly shrinking population) will attempt to rebuild the USSR by either invading or controlling former satellite countries (he designates 11 such countries on pg. 138). Russia has started on this venture with Georgia, and Ukraine. But, it will want to venture as far into Western Europe as part of Poland! By attempting this land grab, Russia will have much friction with both Scandinavia and Turkey; but such prospective conflicts will experience stalemate without shift in borders or control from existing arrangements.The Next Gulf War is really about the tension between Iran (Shiites) and Saudi Arabia (Sunnis) who both compete for supremacy in the Region. And, the U.S. will stop policing the area as it becomes increasingly energy independent. The U.S. very soon will not need Saudi Arabia anymore as the U.S. imports are steadily declining. And, whatever oil it imports comes a lot more from Canada and a lot less from Saudi Arabia. Zeihan reveals that the Saudis oil price war started in 2014 was not so much or only aimed at the U.S. shale oil industry; but, it was particularly aimed at Iran. When oil revenues drop because of lower oil prices, both countries run huge Budget Deficits in the 10% to 15% range of GDP. And, the Saudis have a lot more cash reserves than Iran. The Saudis can afford such Deficits for years, Iran can’t. Meanwhile, Iran has superior military capabilities and will attempt to reconquer portions of the Persian Empire. The tension and conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia will trigger collateral damage throughout the region. “several of the Middle Eastern countries … will lose so much industrial, electrical, and agricultural capacity that they will … de-civilize. Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Yemen, Lebanon … will lose the ability to maintain populations more than one-third their current size.” (pg. 208).The Tanker War is about oil importing countries waging maritime operations and wars to protect their access to oil energy. Those operations will take place in the Far East. And, Japan will play a preponderant role thanks to its strong navy. “Destroy global free trade, unleash the Japanese, and the end of China is nigh… Simply put, the days of China Inc. and Factory Asia are over.” (pg. 258-259). The tension between China and Japan in protecting their respective access to oil energy will affect the entire Far East. The region will be plagued by far higher energy prices/costs than any others because it is so much more energy dependent. Zeihan frequently refers to the “Asian premium.”The last chapter of the Part II: Disorder is on the international private major companies. Once again the Americans (ExxonMobil and Chevron) are the dominant players in technology, global reach, and capital. By contrast BP has been pretty much wiped out in the aftermath of its Deepwater Horizon oil rig disaster in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.Near the end of the book, Zeihan describes how the U.S. will engage (relatively minimally) in the World. He describes the U.S. foreign policy as “Dollar diplomacy.”The U.S. will implement its Dollar diplomacy with Southeast Asia and Australia and New Zealand. The U.S. will continue to maintain close trade and direct investment ties with this region to recreate supply chains to replace or diversify away from relying on China’s manufacturing.During the Disorder’s China manufacturing capacity may weaken significantly as the country experiences a convergence of crises including a debt crisis, a bank credit crisis, an aging population and shrinking labor force crisis, and much geopolitical frictions (the Tanker War).The U.S. will use its Dollar diplomacy throughout Latin America. The region has substantial energy assets including a promising shale oil area in Argentina. But, because of mismanagement the region has not properly utilized those energy assets. The U.S. brings the technology, security, management know-how, and logistics assistance. The U.S. will shift also some of its former supply chains away from China towards Latin America. The U.S. is by far the largest consumer market that will remain a viable trading partner during the Disorder. And, Latin America needs the income that will be generated by the U.S. Dollar diplomacy to repay its foreign debt and feed its people. In summary, Latin America will have no choice but to accept the U.S. terms on their joint energy exploration.In the appendices of the book, Zeihan addresses environmental concerns associated with shale oil. Within this section he conveys a couple of fascinating facts. On pg. 385, he shares a graph that depicts a time series of the estimated temperature increase caused by a doubling of CO2 based on studies completed between 2001 and 2014. And, back in 2001 this estimated temperature increase ranged from + 2.5 to 4.0 degree Celsius. The more recent estimates have shrunk it down to + 1.5 to 2 degree Celsius. That’s a huge difference. Later in this section, he reviews the prospect of renewables (wind, solar). And, they are just not scalable enough to make much of a dent in the overall energy mix. Those energy sources are intermittent, not easily storable and transmissible. Only a small fraction of the earth provides favorable conditions for either. He sees as a more realistic path to reduce CO2 emission the increasing substitution of coal with natural gas (to generate electricity) and increasing energy efficiency.I have a few rebuttals to Zeihan’s theories.First, Zeihan’s main point is that the U.S. is now pretty much a self-sufficient economy that does not need much to trade with other nations. Therefore, it does not need to maintain the supranational Bretton Woods order (NATO, security of maritime routes, etc.). However, when looking at the Bureau of Economic Analysis time series focusing on the trade of goods only (not services) imports have risen from 1.6% of GDP in 1942 to 12.7% in 2015. Similarly, exports of goods have risen over the same period from 1.6% to 8.3%. This is not an isolationist nation, but instead one that is increasingly becoming a hub of industrial design whereby the actual goods are manufactured and assembled out of the U.S. By the same token, the U.S. runs a resulting chronic large Current Account Deficit. As a result, foreigners hold a substantial portion of U.S. Treasuries. In summary, economic trends suggests the U.S. is increasingly codependent with the World in both international trade and international capital flows. Those are not bad things, but they run in opposite direction of Zeihan’s theoretical foundation.Now, focusing on the U.S. energy independence. Even using Zeihan’s own compiled data, I found divergence. On pg. 406, his data conveys the U.S. only produces 65% of the crude oil and natural gas it consumes. Using Zeihan’s numbers, even if we assume Canada would commit 100% of its exports to the U.S. it would fill less than half that gap. It is difficult to come up with a precise estimate, but I suspect that US production + Canada’s imports equal less than 80% of U.S. consumption. “Energy independence” is somewhat premature.Another chronic weakness of the U.S. is its deteriorating fiscal outlook. The U.S. over the next couple of decades will face structural unsustainable yearly Budget Deficits in the 4%+ range that will rapidly grow the U.S. Debt/GDP ratio uncontrollably (Congressional Budget Office is a good source on the topic). The Government has been aware of this situation for over three decades and has done nothing to resolve it. Similarly, at the State and local level finances are strained (Pension crisis). Infrastructure is not well maintained (electricity grid, bridges, roads). Zeihan ignores entirely those fiscal weaknesses at all levels of U.S. Government.Another weakness is the U.S. consistently poor showing in international education standards comparison (PISA). This has to result in a shortage of American engineers, mathematicians, and scientists that has unfavorable implication in the current Big Data-Artificial Intelligence race. It would appear key for the U.S. to remain open to immigrants with human capital. However, the current political discourse does not seem favorable to that.Despite the few rebuttals mentioned above, I give the book a 4-star rating for the originality of the argument and the depth of the research.

Peter Zeihan does it again. Very interesting read. I do not believe all his predictions will come true but his written words inspire deep thought about the world we live in. If you have interest in energy, even green energy- this is very important work. If you have interest in how the map ( geography or geopolitical) will affect counties outcomes and economic success- again very interesting.Halfway though the book I did get a little upset with all the wars that are predicted. Zeihan makes them sound inevitable- a reader must take them with "a grain of salt". As an investor, I continue to ponder the likely outcomes financially, but energy will continue to be an important financial resource to companies, countries, and individuals. Everyone hates energy- but we love freedom, our smart phones, and all the stuff we have made from it.

This book is definitely a must read for anyone that can think.This is absolutely the best book on shale oil/gas you will find. The detail is incredible and important. It makes you feel real good about the future of oil/gas in the US. The thesis of the book is that as the US becomes energy independent, it will be less interested in world trade (true, since most of our imports are either oil or from China) and less interested in military intervention. In other words, the world will be finding its own way without having to worry about US reactions and this might not work out so well. Peter theorizes on a couple of possible wars. Of course, it is impossible to predict what will happen, but I think his war theses are overly simplistic. For example, Air Power and Cyberwar don't enter into the wars at all, and I think they will be big factors (I think some types of war scenarios are possible). My book, Baltic Attack, gives a fictional take at how stealth Air Power could affect that war (I was an aircraft engineer). But the war theories are secondary to all the great geopolitical points (many of them) that Zeihan brings up. He is a real thinker which is a refreshing change.His appendices on Green Power (Wind and Solar Cells) are also very well written, and I think essentially correc

I find Peter's writing and presentations to be extremely informative and engaging. I can't recommend his work highly enough. I pushed his previous book, The Accidental Superpower, on several of my friends and family; all were blown away by the clarity and depth Peter provided. The Absent Superpower is another home run. From the description of various fracking technologies to country by country analysis, I know I am more prepared to digest the news of tomorrow in a coherent fashion.For example, as a Californian, I sincerely hope the Monterey Shale has the potential Peter laid out! Peter's predicts a retreating America; which would let the Persian Gulf tensions severely hamper the production/transport of its oil. California would mostly be cut off the Persian Gulf supplies, apparently Alaska has a loophole to get around an export ban, and South American oil would get bid up by desperate Asian countries. I knew none of this until I was introduced to Peter's work. Excellent job Peter!

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Jumat, 14 Februari 2014

Free Ebook , by Derek Hunter

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, by Derek Hunter

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File Size: 2583 KB

Print Length: 272 pages

Publisher: Broadside e-books (June 19, 2018)

Publication Date: June 19, 2018

Sold by: HarperCollins Publishers

Language: English

ASIN: B073B2GXJT

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#190,387 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)

This book gives a fact- and date-based accounting of how liberal bias. From how "simply science" is just lies repeated over and over again to how anything a conservative does is completely evil even if a liberal has recently done the same. An excellent read with plenty of stories and examples to prove the point. I'm sure the protester shown on the cover with the sign "This book is a hate crime" will turn out to be true once the liberal's realize they have been exposed for the frauds they are.

Thank you Derek, for being a modern day John Adams, who said something similar to your observations: "The law, in all vicissitudes of government, fluctuations of the passions, or flights of enthusiasm, will preserve a steady undeviating course; it will not bend to the uncertain wishes, imaginations, and wanton tempers of men." And also Mr. Adams said, "Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence; nor is the law less stable than the fact." The liberal elites have tried to move us into the situation that Mr. Adams warned us against, and thank you Derek for pointing it out. Our laws are the glue that bind our democracy together and keep it afloat - ALL of them - and Derek does a good job showing that they need to be based on fact, not emotions - another reason liberals are attempting to muddy the factual waters in science and everywhere else. If we begin to pick and choose what are facts and what are not with no provable evidence, and which laws to follow and which to ignore, the democracy falls apart. The founding fathers gave us a process for changing laws we deem unfair or unnecessary, and it is driven by the people through their representatives in Congress; it is vitally important for the preservation of the democracy to follow it. I am beginning to think the downfall of the democracy is precisely what these liberals actually desire - so they can take over the power that they are attempting to remove from the hands of the people, where our founding fathers placed it. Thomas Jefferson said that because power corrupts, the only safe place for it is in the many hands of the people. That is inconvenient for them, since the majority of the people are not in favor of their radical policies, and is arguably one of the reasons Trump got elected. This is also another reason they are placing so much criticism at the founding fathers' feet and using slavery as an excuse to do it.

This era where lightweight political and cultural nonfiction books abound like bad barf got you down, dear reader? Fear not. For HarperCollins brings hope for The Republic in Derek Hunter's debut release, Outrage Inc.Anyone who has followed Hunter's career--from his public policy work, to his radio show and podcasts, to his weekly columns--knows that he is a bright star with a big brain and a clever, cutting, sarcastic and often hilarious style all his own. And now you shall know as well. Lucky you. Hunter proves himself the exception to his late friend and mentor Christopher Hitchens' famed edict about how "everybody does have a book in them, and in most cases that's where it should stay." And Hitch would be delighted that this long overdue book deal from a major publishing house for his gifted friend has come to be. May there be many more.

Great book, it changed my opinion on the political spectrum which I never really cared much about.

This book is well-documented and full of names, dates, actual quotes, etc. It's not just a bunch of broad vitriol hurled at the Left. My biggest problem is that the author repeatedly resorts to very juvenile sorts of insults, like "...figures can lie like Bill Clinton caught with his pants around his ankles in the intern housing". He refers repeatedly to unwashed, body-pierced drum circle types. These sorts of petty insults detract from his message, and may well have the affect of alienating open-mind liberals who might have picked up his book with the desire to learn something.

Hunter's is well written and accurate. It is easy to read. Unfortunately most of those who should read it won't. The book does a good job of pointing out the falsities spread by the Left, the media and the famous. Its subtitle, "How the Liberal Mob Ruined Science, Journalism, and Hollywood," well describes what is inside.The example I choose in order to illustrate what the book is about is the Michael Brown travesty perpetrated by the media and some in the world of sports several years ago. A miscreant who was black is shot by a white Ferguson, MO. police officer. Even though there was no credible evidence that the officer acted wrongly, the media and certain athletes tried to make the legal clearing of the officer look like a gross miscarriage of justice. Remember "Hands up - Don't shoot" being acted out by athletes on the field; and the mass hysteria whipped up by a Left-leaning media? Remember the efforts made by the media to make Michael Brown into someone whose character was clean as the driven snow?The above is just one of several examples the author used in to make his point or how the Big-Gov't.-Lovers in the U.S. are using dirty, smelly tactics to foist their beliefs off onto the backs of the half of the population who use common sense. By the way, your reviewer was born and reared in St. Louis County, Missouri just a short distance from Ferguson.

A very timely, important book (and a quick read) as we are in the midst of yet another media-orchestrated moral panic. Where "cooler heads" once prevailed we now have non-stop outrage being provoked until we move on to the next Thing To Be Angry About. It has to stop. Breathe into a paper bag if you must, but I implore folks at every point along our vast political spectrum to force yourself to get through this one and really think about it... and even if you *disagree* with it, you shouldn't get *angry* about it.

An excellent read. Recommend 100%

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Senin, 27 Januari 2014

Ebook A Moonless, Starless Sky: Ordinary Women and Men Fighting Extremism in Africa, by Alexis Okeowo

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A Moonless, Starless Sky: Ordinary Women and Men Fighting Extremism in Africa, by Alexis Okeowo


Ebook A Moonless, Starless Sky: Ordinary Women and Men Fighting Extremism in Africa, by Alexis Okeowo

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A Moonless, Starless Sky: Ordinary Women and Men Fighting Extremism in Africa, by Alexis Okeowo

Review

"Finally, finally, finally--a humane, skillful storyteller with sound reporting instincts has dug into the middle of the stories we think we've already heard out of Africa. Alexis Okeowo can write prose as arresting as Ryszard Kapuscinski's, she's got Katherine Boo's big heart, but she has her own fresh way of approaching the work, one that is terribly overdue. Absolutely essential reading, period."―Alexandra Fuller, New York Times bestselling author of Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight and Quiet Until the Thaw"From an abolitionist who once owned a slave to women basketball players in a war zone, Alexis Okeowo has an alert and thoughtful eye for the unexpected. The portraits and voices she brings us from Africa are so vivid that the reader can easily forget the determination and bravery it must have taken to gather them in these unhappy corners of the continent."―Adam Hochschild, New York Times bestselling author of King Leopold's Ghost and Spain in Our Hearts"In A Moonless, Starless Sky, Alexis Okeowo has wandered as a reporter into some of Africa's most difficult and dangerous corners and delivered something remarkable: real characters, women and men, fully rendered."―Howard W. French, author of Everything Under the Heavens"Spectacular reporting. Full of fresh, unexpected detail. If you want to get an immediate sense of the lives, both quotidian and extraordinary, of Africans in some of the continent's most troubled countries, read Alexis Okeowo's book."―William Finnegan, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Barbarian Days"Remarkable.... Okeowo writes with beauty and grace.... Refreshingly, she does not give in to easy answers.... Clear-eyed, lyrical, observant, and compassionate--reportage at its finest."―Kirkus (starred review)"Alexis Okeowo has gone to the hardest continent and come away with a series of tales about the fight against fanaticism and despair. The result is a deeply sensitive portrait of modern Africa and a microscope on the human condition in the most difficult circumstances."―Dexter Filkins, Pulitzer-Prize winning author of The Forever War"Alexis Okeowo's startling and brilliant account of fierce horrors and tender hopes is one of the best records I have ever read of a world that has been made and remade time and again out of struggle and faith. Okeowo is just the kind of reporter we need to hear from when it comes to Africa, the 'new' old world: truthful, accurate, deep."―Hilton Als, Pulitzer-Prize winning author of White Girls"Evocative and affecting.... Okeowo's in-depth, perceptive reporting gives a voice to ... extraordinarily courageous--and resilient--women and men."―Publishers Weekly (starred review)"A Moonless, Starless Sky is a captivating look at the on-the-ground effects of extremist groups and the people who live their lives in spite of them."―Booklist"Okeowo's compelling prose is lean but empathetic, reportorial and personal both in an individual and cultural sense; her own status as a biological African born in America who straddles two continents and two sensibilities--at minimum--infuses this work with a real urgency.... Okeowo's message to readers, and the lesson she unsentimentally gleans for herself, is that even under a forbidding sky--one without the radiance of moon or stars-there is always enough light to navigate out of the darkness toward a better world."―Ms. Magazine

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About the Author

Alexis Okeowo is a staff writer for the New Yorker and a fellow at New America. Her work has appeared in the New Yorker, the New York Times Magazine, the Financial Times, Time, and Fortune, among many other publications. The daughter of immigrant parents, Okeowo grew up in Alabama and attended Princeton University. She was based in Lagos, Nigeria, from 2012 to 2015, and now lives in Brooklyn.

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Product details

Paperback: 272 pages

Publisher: Hachette Books; Reprint edition (October 2, 2018)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0316382922

ISBN-13: 978-0316382922

Product Dimensions:

5.2 x 0.8 x 8.1 inches

Shipping Weight: 7.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.6 out of 5 stars

35 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#180,090 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

A Moonless, Starless Sky is a thoughtfully written book, capturing the perspectives of people whose stories needed to be told but hadn’t yet been brought into the light. Alexis Okeowo uncovers the fascinating and unique experiences of those combating extremism, terror, racism, and/or misogyny in four African countries. These include a Ugandan woman abducted by the LRA who marries the former child soldier who raped her; an activist in Mauritania who seeks to bring visibility to and demolish the practice of slavery in his country; a man in Nigeria who risks his life leading a local militia to combat Boko Haram; and a young woman who receives death threats from Al-Shabaab for playing basketball in Somalia. A talented journalist, Okeowo goes beyond the word and stylistic limits of the article to delve much deeper into the lives of the people featured in her book, often to her own emotional detriment. The book is told in two sets of four chapters. The first four chapters end with very beautifully written cliffhangers that leave the reader yearning to learn about the fates of the people whose stories have been captured. The second set provides some semblance of resolution, but these are real people who continue to lead their lives in very precarious and unpredictable circumstances.The book is very accessible for those who haven’t read much about Africa and is a great entry point for those who would like to learn more about a diverse set of countries filled with stories of tragedy, struggle, bravery, and, ultimately, hope. Thanks to Alexis Okeowo for her courage in locating and unveiling some of these stories and for presenting them in such a meaningful way.

For some reason the first 50 or 60 pages of this book went really fast for me. I was totally in to the stories about each of the individuals Okeowo writes about. Then, I’m not sure what happened, the book became a bit of a chore to finish. First, parts of it seemed repetitive. Second, oddly enough I felt like I didn’t care (as much as I should have) about the people in the book. Of course I cared about them in that what they’ve been through is horrible, unjust, unfair, and so supremely wrong there are just no words. So, I cared, but I didn’t identify, which I think is really what the author wanted for the readers of this book, ie, to see themselves in the people of this book.

There are no mutants here, just ordinary humans who have made choices to deny easy victory to forces seeking to destroy them. And the way that Ms. Okeowo approaches them and tells their stories is quite simply humane. Their stories are compelling, but not embellished. This is all a non-fiction reader could want.

Simply transformative. Alexis lifts up the lives and narratives of people that nearly all other journalists overlook, and in so doing restores a part of our humanity we weren't even aware that we lost. Completely breathtaking.

An interesting look at the intimate lives of those who have endured years of turmoil plus historical facts about the evolution of the political environment.

Well written, touching stories of people in Africa confronting injustice. I travel to Rwanda each year to visit friends. I found this book interesting and informative.

Beautiful stories that are beautifully written. Much care was taken in producing this work. A must read for Africanists and general readers alike.

Absolutely amazing. I recommend it for anyone willing to learn about the different lives of people from around the world

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Jumat, 17 Januari 2014

PDF Download Vegetable Growing Month-By-Month, by John Harrison

PDF Download Vegetable Growing Month-By-Month, by John Harrison

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Vegetable Growing Month-By-Month, by John Harrison

Vegetable Growing Month-By-Month, by John Harrison


Vegetable Growing Month-By-Month, by John Harrison


PDF Download Vegetable Growing Month-By-Month, by John Harrison

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Vegetable Growing Month-By-Month, by John Harrison

Product details

Paperback: 256 pages

Publisher: How to Books; UK ed. edition (March 13, 2008)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0716021897

ISBN-13: 978-0716021896

Product Dimensions:

5.1 x 0.7 x 7.8 inches

Shipping Weight: 6.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

3.0 out of 5 stars

1 customer review

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#649,991 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Based on English growing season but some good all around ideas.

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Ebook Off the Cuff, by Carson Kressley

Ebook Off the Cuff, by Carson Kressley

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Off the Cuff, by Carson Kressley

Off the Cuff, by Carson Kressley


Off the Cuff, by Carson Kressley


Ebook Off the Cuff, by Carson Kressley

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Off the Cuff, by Carson Kressley

About the Author

A standout member of the Fab Five on the hit television series Queer Eye for the Straight Guy, Carson Kressley is also a fashion expert for Us magazine and an independent stylist. He received his first couture garment as a child and began developing his fashion sense on the playground. Since those auspicious beginnings, he has earned degrees in Finance and Fine Art from Gettysburg College (where he graduated magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa), and is also a nationally ranked equestrian.

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Product details

Paperback: 176 pages

Publisher: Plume (July 26, 2005)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0452286115

ISBN-13: 978-0452286115

Product Dimensions:

7.3 x 0.4 x 8.7 inches

Shipping Weight: 15.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

3.9 out of 5 stars

37 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#1,765,251 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

I appreciate this book for its modern approach to men's fashion. Instead of discussing anachronisms such as white tie or unworn oddities like cravats or silk dressing gowns, Carson discusses the way modern men dress and ways to improve. This isn't a treatise on classic English dress like so many others. Especially valuable are the "Don't" lists. Fortunately, i found myself in violation of only a few of these. (cell phone on the belt/backpack for travel)Of course there were some over the top suggestions such as velvet slippers or denim jackets under blazers, but overall he surprised me with the overall conservative nature of his recommendations. His clothing photo spreads obviously need to be looked for their ability to generate ideas for your own style. No regular guy could pull off these looks precisely as presented, but they are valuable for their color combinations and pairings of various articles of clothing.Carson uses a considerable bit of humor, which i found successful and enjoyable. It gave the feeling that I was having a fun conversation with him at a party. This is a book you can go back to again for inspiration.

Carson Kressley is well-suited to give advice on men's clothing even if he has strong opinions. He tells the story of going to the military recruiter and then following up by going with Saks Fifth Avenue instead. His explanations for style recommendations made most of his ideas seem intuitive. This was what I wanted out of the book and got it.Some of Kressley's humor was great and sometimes it was redundant. He definitely gets a kick out of cluing in those with less couth.

I bought this book for some fashion tips and it doesn't disappoint. He shares a lot of good fashion tips and tells what you must have in your closet. I never knew there were different kinds of shoes before. I gave it a four star because it doesn't have enough pictures. It has a lot of illustrations but it doesn't have pictures of how all these clothes & shoes fit together. It would have been a very good addition to have real pictures worn by normal men of the different styles so that we can actually look at it instead of imagining how it would look like.

I really liked this book a lot. I have several of the books like this, including Alan Flusser. This was definitely no Flusser, but Carson keeps it real in a way that keeps you engaged. As a style consultant myself, I don't agree with everything he says, but a lot of it is on point. For example, he talks about how personal style is, while also dictating some aspects, like pleats vs. no pleats. Any signature look that you create for yourself can involve any pieces, patterns, colors, etc., as long as you are consistently being true to a particular aesthetic. Pleated pants work very well for some people, especailly black men who generally have bigger buns. Overall, this is a really good book.

Outstanding guide to more than just fashion, it is about style and fashion, it reads like Carson speaks witty and urban, rooted all at the same . Thanks Carson for advice I am no more a fashion clod I am a fashion clod with style, this book is on my bedstand as I dress for the week.Thanks

I enjoy watching and learning from Carson Kressley and the other members of the Fab 5 on QEFTSG and the group's book was very well done. So, at first I wondered if I should buy this book because I was wondering if the same information from the Fab 5 book will be the same on "Off the Cuff".I found "Off the Cuff" to be a very enjoyable read with a lot of humor and also learning more about fashion than I have received from other men's fashion books. Kressley does a great job of explaining why and why not with articles of clothing and things I really didn't know about until I read this book. I was really impressed! From the shoes and the explanations of certain shoes and clothing was very much appreciated!I am stoked that he also spoke out against toe socks that to my chagrin CARGO magazine said was "in"....NOT!Anyway, I'm a straight man who appreciates the advice that Carson gives. One thing he makes sure that this book is not to dress like him, but for you to take the tools mentioned in his book and integrate what you learn for your personal life."Off the Cuff" is an enjoyable read and currently ranks in my top 3 of books that deal with style for men. You won't be disappointed!

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Kamis, 16 Januari 2014

Ebook Free A Nature and Hiking Guide to Cape Breton's Cabot Trail (Maritime Travel Guides), by David Lawley

Ebook Free A Nature and Hiking Guide to Cape Breton's Cabot Trail (Maritime Travel Guides), by David Lawley

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A Nature and Hiking Guide to Cape Breton's Cabot Trail (Maritime Travel Guides), by David Lawley

A Nature and Hiking Guide to Cape Breton's Cabot Trail (Maritime Travel Guides), by David Lawley


A Nature and Hiking Guide to Cape Breton's Cabot Trail (Maritime Travel Guides), by David Lawley


Ebook Free A Nature and Hiking Guide to Cape Breton's Cabot Trail (Maritime Travel Guides), by David Lawley

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A Nature and Hiking Guide to Cape Breton's Cabot Trail (Maritime Travel Guides), by David Lawley

Product details

Series: Maritime Travel Guides

Paperback: 208 pages

Publisher: Down East Books; Illustrated edition edition (January 1, 1997)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 1551091054

ISBN-13: 978-1551091051

Product Dimensions:

5.4 x 0.6 x 8.3 inches

Shipping Weight: 12 ounces

Average Customer Review:

3.7 out of 5 stars

2 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#1,433,230 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

This book covers a beautiful part of the world for hiking. While the verbal content is ok, the graphic content is very poor. The first problem is that there are too few maps, and those that are presented are not well done. Having good maps -- or even just ADEQUATE maps -- would have greatly improved this book.The second significant problem is that while there are many illustrations, NONE of them are labled...! I can hardly believe it, but it's true. While none of us really need to be told "this is a bald eagle", there are many illustrations of flowers and trees that would have real meaning if the species were identified.Too bad.So that leaves us with the actual written content of the book, which is good. Unfortuately that can not stand on its own.

PLANNING ON DOING THE CABOT TRAUIL BY BICYCLE THIS SUMMER AND WANT TO KNOW ABOUT ALL THE SPECIAL STUFF AND PLACES. THIS BOOK FILLS THE BILL.

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Selasa, 07 Januari 2014

Free Ebook , by Ian Stewart

Free Ebook , by Ian Stewart

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, by Ian Stewart

, by Ian Stewart


, by Ian Stewart


Free Ebook , by Ian Stewart

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, by Ian Stewart

Product details

File Size: 6906 KB

Print Length: 418 pages

Publisher: Penguin; 2Rev Ed edition (June 26, 1997)

Publication Date: June 26, 1997

Sold by: PEN UK

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0140256024

ISBN-13: 978-0140256024

ASIN: B002RI9LE4

Text-to-Speech:

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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#1,060,063 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)

This is the second book I read from Ian Steward. I was looking for another book on the subject of chaos, and having been impressed by a book of his called "The Mathematics of Life," I decided to read this one. I wasn't disappointed.He begins with the Greeks, Eudoxus, Ptolemy, and others and moves through time to Copernicus, Kepler, and Galilei showing how the foundations of mathematics were developed. Later we learn of the works of Euler, Lagrange and his generalized coordinates, Hamilton's work on the state of dynamical systems, and Galton's contributions to the normal distribution. As the 20th century came to a close, statistical methodology took its place alongside deterministic modeling as an equal partner.By chapter six, we are into strange attractors and flows in a plane such as sinks, sources, saddles, and limit cycles. Then there is quasiperiodicity, suspensions, solenoids, and Poincaré sections which can give us interesting pictures of the dynamical behavior. Any text on chaos is, of course, going to cover logistic mapping and bifurcation diagrams, as well - so does Steward. Chapter ten introduces Mitchell Feigenbaum and the Feigenvalue - a value of 4.669 - the rate at which successive period doublings accumulate faster and faster. Chapter eleven gets into fractals, Julia sets and the infamous Mandelbrot set.I found chapter sixteen very interesting. I'll just quote Steward here, "The central thrust of the chapter is the possibility of changing the theoretical framework of quantum mechanics altogether, replacing quantum uncertainty by deterministic chaos as Einstein would have liked." As Steward delves into concepts such as quanta; wave functions; spin; eigenfunctions; decoherence; the Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen paradox and other concepts, he exposes what he feels are some loopholes in the arguments - all very fascinating. His alternate explanation of "spooky action at a distance" or quantum entanglement eliminates the need for information to travel at speeds exceeding the speed of light. I found his argument convincing - too lengthy to describe here. In the last chapter, the discussion turns to complexity theory and how it relates to chaos.Steward presents here for us, I feel, an interesting introduction to the world of chaos - the world we live in incidentally. This is an in depth discussion of the subject, but I feel that Steward did a remarkable job of "translating" the obtuse mathematics and concepts to an understandable level for someone not expert in the field. Certainly an excellent book, and I highly recommend it.By the way, as Steward says in the Epilogue, "If God played dice ... he'd win."

This is a good book for those who are either starting to learn about chaos and nonlinear dynamics or those who would just like an overall view of what the subject is about without getting bogged down into heavy-duty math. This book has two distinct themes. One is to explain the mathematical concept of chaos, and why it is both natural and inevitable. The other is to ask the rather long question "Does the mathematical model of chaos exist in the real world, and does it help us understand some of the things that we see?".This book covers a variety of subjects that might at first seem unrelated - mathematical history, various chaotic models, weather patterns, applications - but by the end of the book everything comes together to give you a good overall view of the field. This second edition is mainly different from the first in the added three chapters on applications. These chapters cover prediction in chaotic systems, the control of chaotic systems, and then there is a speculative chapter that attempts to explain how the concept of chaos might lead to a new answer to Einstein's famous question which is also the title of this book.This book requires more imagination and an ability to visualize than a talent for mathematics, and it makes a good introduction to more technical books on the subject such as "Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos" by Strogatz. Of course, that book requires much more in the way of mathematical maturity. This book looks more at the forest, the Strogatz book looks more at the trees.

An interesting and fun introduction to chaos. Stewart writes very well and often makes keen and insightful observations. I learned a great deal and was inspired to read other books on this fascinating topic. There were a few things I didn't like, but to be honest they are not major: 1) The deliberate avoidance of mathematical detail in this book, which does indeed present some very deep mathematical concepts, is very odd and sometimes unhelpful. Odd, for example, as when in the midst of a chapter on quantum theory Stewart takes time to painstakingly tell the reader what an absolute value is. Or, when he's describing how to perform calculations to generate chaos he stops for a paragraph to explain what it means to square a variable. Is it really possible that readers who lack such rudimentary math skills would be reading this book?? 2) For my tastes, there's way too much God talk in this book. Stewart clearly is not doing this for any religious reason - but it's odd because I have no idea why he finds it necessary to so often toss in sentences about God doing this or God thinking that, or God blah blah blah. By the end - especially at the literal end and the stupid joke in the epilogue - it really gets tiresome.

I am a college-educated, non-math major, numbers-oriented senior citizen who wanted to find out what Chaos Theory is. I got this book out of my local library to see whether I should purchase it. It reads easily, even entertainingly, so I decided to order it.However, the newest edition in paperback has very very fine print--even with reading glasses! I returned this edition, and am trying again with the older edition in hardback (same ISBN as the library book).As others have noted, this book does not go into the "deep" mathematics of Chaos. However, the material IS challenging.

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